In the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, a lot of the positive momentum shaping up yesterday evening has disappeared once again. It appears the markets simply can’t catch a breather, which causes all kinds of concern. For ZCash, things are still looking somewhat decent, as the ZEC value remains above $125.
ZCash Price Uptrend is Intact
A very peculiar ZCash price trend has formed over the past few days. After an initial push to $125 last week, it seemed the value would retrace altogether once again. Things have, for reasons unknown, turned out better than originally anticipated, albeit it is unclear how long this current price level can be maintained under the overarching bearish momentum.
During the past 24 hours, not much spectacular has happened across any of the markets. In the case of ZCash, there is a 2% uptrend in USD value and a near 3% gain over Bitcoin. Compared to other altcoin markets, this is quite significant. More importantly, ZCash is one of the few altcoin markets not suffering from a lack of trading volume, indicating this trend may remain in place for a few more hours.
Today marks a very interesting date for ZCash, as the Sapling upgrade is slated to go into effect. This also means exchanges will temporarily pause deposits and withdrawals of ZEC until that network upgrade is completed. In the case of Huobi Global, they already suspended these services, which is only to be expected at such a crucial stage for the ZCash network.
There are still a few people who see the current ZCash price uptrend as an example of how ZEC will be making its way to Coinbase sooner rather than later. Although one has to commend this enthusiasm, it is evident this wild speculation will not serve any real purpose until the exchange officially confirms the listing.
Interestingly enough, it seems as if South Korean traders may push the ZEC price to new levels over the coming weeks. Bouudes claims there is a fair amount of volume in KRW markets, which is seemingly true at this stage. As such, a new uptrend might be forming following the Sapling upgrade. Whether or not that will effectively happen, is a different matter altogether.
All things considered, ZCash appears to be in a relatively good place right now. As long as the value remains above $120, there should be no immediate bearish pressure to speak of. At the same time, the ongoing struggle for Bitcoin will effectively drag down all other markets and ZCash might not escape that gravitational pull forever.
Is Bitcoin Primed to Initiate a Rally Above $7,000 After Weeks of Stability?
Throughout the past ten days, the Bitcoin price has remained in a tight range from $6,300 to $6,500, rarely initiating a noticeable movement.
The 1-day price chart of Bitcoin, as shown below, demonstrates nearly two weeks of stability in the lower price range of the dominant cryptocurrency, unable to engage in a short-term upside movement to confirm a breakout above a major resistance level.
In the past 24 hours, the volume of BTC has fallen back to $3.1 billion from $3.5 billion, by more than 10 percent. The lack of trading activity in the cryptocurrency exchange market can be attributed to the tendency of traders to prevent the initiation of high-risk and high-return trades in a period of extended stability and low volatility.
According to prominent cryptocurrency trader and technical analyst Peter Brandt, the price trend of BTC throughout the past ten days demonstrates a classic Wyckoff hinge, which suggests that buyers are in control in the market that has been dominated by bears and sellers since early 2018.
“Wyckoff would classify these past 10 days as classic hinge behavior,” Brandt said.
However, for the hinge to materialize, an abrupt increase in the price of Bitcoin to the $6,800 to $7,000 range to breakout of the $6,800 resistance level is required, which traders are observing at this time.
Due to the low volume and trading activity of the cryptocurrency exchange market, a sudden breakout of Bitcoin in a higher price range is becoming increasingly unlikely, at least in the short-term.
As for technical indicators and minor price movements of Bitcoin, since August 9, the asset has barely made any movement outside of the $6,300 to $6,800 range, portraying the lowest rate of volatility in recent years.
Often, the stability in the price of BTC leads to an increase in value of small market cap cryptocurrencies and tokens. But, the low volume of the crypto market has prevented traders from engaging in risky trades in a market that is highly unpredictable.
Most tokens including Wanchain, Golem, Funfair, Aelf, and Zilliqa have made 2 to 8 percent gains across the board over the last 24 hours.
Positive Development Out of China
Throughout the past several months, with the imposition of a ban on Alipay in settling cryptocurrency-related transactions, the government of China has cracked down on the crypto market, strengthening the existing blanket ban on the asset class.
On October 26, CnLedger, a trusted cryptocurrency source in China, reported that a local court ruled Bitcoin to be a property and protected under law, reaffirming the legality of owning and holding BTC.
“Chinese court confirms Bitcoin is protected by law. Shenzhen Court of International Arbitration ruled a case involving cryptos. Inside the verdict: China law does not forbid owning & transferring bitcoin, which should be protected by law because of its property nature and economic value.”
While the ruling of the court does not change the inability of investors in China to legally invest in BTC, it is possible to rely on over-the-counter (OTC) markets to purchase crypto and hold onto them.
Bitcoin’s Current Run of $100 Price Volatility is the Longest for 18 Months
The bitcoin market is experiencing some of the lowest volatility it’s seen in 18 months.
The daily volatility, as represented by the spread between the daily price high and low, fell below $100 on Oct. 19 and since then, has remained under that psychological mark, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (BPI).
The seven-day period of below $100 volatility is the longest since the end of April 2017.
It is worth noting that BTC averaged around $1,200 in April and early May of 2017. Further, the average daily volatility during that period was $33, that is, prices moved 2.75 percent on a daily basis. Hence, back then, a $100 daily volatility reading was a normal thing.
As of now, BTC is averaging around $6,500 and the average daily volatility has dropped to $56 in the last seven days, meaning prices are moving just 0.86 percent on a daily basis. So, it seems safe to say that we are witnessing an unprecedented period of low volatility.
Such times of tranquility often end in a big move on either side. However, bitcoin price volatility has been falling over months now and a promised sustained shift to either bulls or bears has so far not materialized.
Under these conditions, the best thing to do is to jot down the key levels and trade the breakout.
Bull breakout scenario: Move above $7,400
A break above the September high of $7,400 would put an end to the series of lower price highs (marked by circles). The bull breakout, if confirmed, would open the doors to a stronger rally to $10,000. On the way higher, BTC may encounter resistance at the July highs near $8,500.
Bear breakout scenario: BTC finds acceptance below $6,000
As seen in the weekly chart above, BTC seems to have carved out a bottom around $6,000. The likes of Billionaire investor Novogratz have also echoed similar sentiments in the recent past. As a result, $6,000 is the level to beat for the bears.
If BTC finds acceptance below that level, then the bears may end up pushing prices down to $5,000.
Chinese Arbitration Court Says Bitcoin Should Be Legally Protected as Property
An arbitration body in China has ruled that despite the country’s central bank’s ban on cryptocurrency trading, bitcoin should still be legally protected as a property with economic values.
The Shenzhen Court of International Arbitration published a case analysis on Thursday via WeChat, detailing its ruling on a recent economic dispute that involved a business contract relating to possession and transfer of crypto assets.
According to the case analysis, the unnamed plaintiff signed a contract agreement with the defendant, which allowed the latter to trade and manage a pool of cryptocurrencies on the plaintiff’s behalf.
However, the plaintiff said the defendant failed and refused to return the cryptocurrencies after an agreed deadline. As a result, they brought the case to the arbitrator, seeking the return of the assets with interest.
The cryptocurrencies at dispute included around 20 bitcoin, 50 bitcoin cash, and 13 bitcoin diamond, worth around $493,158 combined, the plaintiff said.
While there’s no specific law in China governing cryptocurrencies, the arbitrator’s analysis offers a window into its thinking on the nature of the financial technology.
The arbitrator said one main argument made by the defendant was that the ban from the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) on cryptocurrency trading and initial coin offerings essentially means crypto payments and transactions should be illegal in China. As such, the entire contract, by default, would become invalid.
Further, with the trading ban, the defendant said there was no venue to trade and send the assets to the plaintiff.
However, the arbitrator disagreed, explaining the nature of the case is about the contractual obligation for returning cryptocurrencies, which does not fall under the cryptocurrency trading or initial coin offering categories outlined in the PBoC’s September 2017 ban.
The arbitrator stated that there is no law in China currently that prohibits the possession of bitcoin and its transactions between individuals. Further, it said there should be no technical difficulties in sending bitcoin as long as one has a bitcoin address and private key.
“The Arbitration Court noticed that, after September 2017, major bitcoin exchanges operating in China at the time suspended their businesses. But technically, that fact does not prevent the defendant from sending the bitcoin and bitcoin cash at dispute to the plaintiff upon the agreed deadline,” the arbitrator said.
The court concluded that, whether bitcoin is a legal tender or not, does not have an impact on the fact that bitcoin ownership should be protected legally based on China’s contract law, adding:”Bitcoin has the nature of a property, which can be owned and controlled by parties, and is able to provide economic values and benefits.”
The court is one of the Arbitration Committees established in China after the country enacted a law in 1995 enabling city governments to form such entities to rule on economic disputes relating to contract issues in areas such as business, finance and real estate.